Internet prediction market Kalshi is selling dollars for 80 cents. You heard that right. Easy money! How? By letting you bet on the outcome of Michigan’s 2026 gubernatorial primaries—and giving far more accurate polling data than mainstream pollsters in the process.
Prediction markets are a relatively new thing, becoming popular online in the post-pandemic era.
They allow bettors to wager money, predicting the outcome of events. Unlike sports betting apps where the house sets the odds, however, bettors directly affect the “market” with their wagers.
Funds bet go into an escrow held by the site, and as bettors take one side or another, the odds shift. Usually, each bet is framed as a question, with “yes” and “no” outcomes.
For example, “Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan?” lists a few top candidates. John James, Tudor Dixon, Mike Cox. You can bet “yes” or “no” on any of them.
A “yes” bet on John James for GOP nominee will cost you 80 cents, but pays out a dollar. I bet $9.60 and look forward to my eventual $12 payout.
Why am I so confident, when mainstream polling has John James and Tudor Dixon neck and neck? Because of how prediction markets work.
James is the clear frontrunner on Kalshi by sizable margin, with a “yes” bet trading at 80 cents vs. Dixon at 7 cents. Dixon would pay out more if she wins, but the bettors are predicting a John James nomination by massive margins.
They aren’t just guessing based on recent headlines, they’re making a stake with cold hard cash. Since the betting itself shapes the odds, the willingness of bettors to take on risk gives us a real prediction from those with skin in the game.
Prediction markets have been uncannily accurate, often running contrary to media polling. Donald Trump was long favored over Kamala Harris on Polymarket, for example, even while polls had them neck and neck.
Bettors actually want to make money at the end of the day. They’ll only place bets they think have a shot at winning, or underdog bets that are worth the risk.
Pollsters, on the other hand, have zero accountability. Media polling, for the most part, can be easily manipulated, massaged, and altered to provide favorable headlines for whatever outcome the pollsters want.
Sometimes this takes the form of a demoralization campaign. Kamala is polling ahead of Trump, so don’t even bother voting, Trump supporters! Meanwhile, one look at the betting markets showed Trump pulling way ahead, passing 60/40 odds a month before the election.
Who do you trust: legions of degenerate gamblers putting their own money on the line or media pollsters who chase headlines not accuracy?
Media outlets aren’t happy about this, of course. Prediction markets have come under scrutiny, facing legal challenges from several angles.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission banned the trading of U.S. Election derivatives until Kalshi sued them in 2023 and won. This paved the way for legal betting on elections, and for American participation in these betting markets.
For the more frugal among us, prediction markets are a new tool for accurately gauging public sentiment and the likely outcome of events, including elections. For savvy gamblers with an eye for news, there’s a real betting opportunity here.
One thing’s certain—there’s no crying in the casino.
Bobby Mars is art director of Michigan Enjoyer. Follow him on X @bobby_on_mars.
