If the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Michigan were between Democrat Pete Buttigieg and Republican Mike Rogers, Rogers could hold the edge, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Plymouth Union Public Research, said that in a head-to-head race, Pete Buttigieg wins just 43% support, compared to 46% for Rogers.
Buttigieg is fresh off a four-year tenure as U.S. Secretary of Transportation, while Rogers is a former longtime congressman. Buttigieg is considered the Democrat front-runner in some circles, but the poll suggests he would struggle in an general election, dragged down by high negatives and questions about his carpetbagger status.
In 2024, Mike Rogers came about 19,000 votes short in his Senate race against Elissa Slotkin. This was the closest Senate race in recent history; when John James lost to Gary Peters in 2020, he came about 92,000 votes short, in what was also considered a close race.
The poll also compared Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who said she won’t run for senator, and Slotkin, who just won last year’s race, and found Buttigieg would struggle compared both women.
“Despite never appearing on a Michigan ballot, Buttigieg’s intense negatives alone exceed Slotkin’s total negatives,” the report reads.
Buttigieg and his husband Chasten moved from Indiana to Traverse City in July 2022, to be near Chasten’s family. That short timespan does not endear Buttigieg to Michigan likely voters, who are inclined to see him as a carpetbagger, the poll says.
“Only 46% of our sample even knew that Pete Buttigieg lives in Michigan now, and the same percentage of Michigan voters believe that Buttigieg should not run for a Senate seat in a state he has only lived in for two years,” reads the report.
It continues: “Even our attempt to justify the move fell flat: when we asked voters if they would be more likely to support Buttigieg if they knew his husband was from Michigan, the reception was mixed at best,” with only 28% more likely to support Buttigieg, 33% less likely, and 34% unsure.
Some 72% of respondents to the 500-person poll said they view Buttigieg as a career politician.
“This quick read into the Michigan electorate is enough to affirm that Pete Buttigieg has a problem on his hands should he run for the U.S. Senate,” the report concludes.
“His brief residency in the state presents a major vulnerability for him, especially when it is juxtaposed with the trajectory of his career so far. Any candidate facing Pete Buttigieg (whether it be in the primary or the general) can weaponize the residency issue and present themselves as the true voice of Michigan values.”
The political science is always changing. This we know. But as Pete Buttigieg considers whether to continue his career in politics or get a real job, he will face an uphill battle to the U.S. Senate.
The 2026 election will be held on Nov. 3, 2026.
James David Dickson is host of the Enjoyer Podcast. Join him in conversation on X @downi75.
