Earlier this year, I did a Detroit TV news show, Let It Rip, on the supposed rise of the electric vehicle.
My panel mate warned that if American companies did not respond to demand, Chinese companies would.
That was odd, I thought, given the difficulties American companies have selling EVs. Since Thomas Edison walked the earth, range anxiety has been the top worry among people considering electric vehicles.
The feds are pouring billions of dollars into highly public charging programs, some of which are pure science fiction like electrified roads. There’s a good chance that money will benefit Chinese firms rather than the Big Three.
A Chinese EV would have two difficulties in America: penetrating the market, as no China-based automaker has done, and chargers, the same problem every automaker has except for Tesla.
America’s rush to build a nationwide charging network only helps Chinese EV companies.
The worst scenario of all for Detroit, says a population estimate by SEMCOG, is fast EV adoption, where the Big Three lose market share. That wouldn’t just cost manufacturing jobs, it would cause the population to crater.
In this scenario, Metro Detroit would have fewer people in 2050 than it had in 2020. That’s the world policymakers in Washington and Lansing are rushing headlong into.
An undersecretary of energy warned Congress in February that mineral procurement is a problem. China leads the market in the rare earth minerals needed for EV batteries, and America is in second place.
But even if America somehow took the lead in procurement, it would still have a problem of refinement. China leads in refinement by a country mile. America is working to get caught up but is not there yet.
That is to say: mass EV adoption per se benefits China. That could change in a year or a decade. But it hasn’t changed yet. Until it does, the time is not right.
Buy an EV if you like. Personally, I think they cost too much and do too little. They’re not set up for long hauls or hard work. They’re built for show, not for go.
But rushing into the EV transition would compromise national security and national competitiveness. We know this. When we find politicians rushing in, we should ask them why and if they’ve thought it through.
It reminds me of the old joke.
A young bull and an old bull are at the top of a hill. There are hundreds of cows grazing below. The young bull says, “Let’s run down there and f*** a cow!”
The old bull says, “No, let’s walk down and f*** them all.”
James David Dickson supports a strong Michigan auto industry. He is an independent journalist in Michigan and the host of The Enjoyer Podcast. Follow him on X at @downi75.
