Michigan’s Political Divide Is Between Men and Women, Not Right and Left

When we talk about the current political landscape in Michigan, and in America more broadly, analysts and pollsters are quick to split everyone up ideologically. Which way are the Republicans moving, which way are the Democrats shifting, and which way are the ever-crucial swing voters in the middle leaning?

Michigan’s political divide, however, isn’t so cleanly between left and right. When you break down the data, the divide isn’t ideological. It’s gendered. Men vs. women.

For anyone with a cursory knowledge of American politics, this isn’t surprising, but the numbers are startling when you see how severe the gender divergence has become.

A Cygnal poll conducted on behalf of Michigan Enjoyer show that Michigan’s men and women would elect completely different slates of candidates if voting on their own, by incredibly wide margins.

Right down the line, we see major gaps. Men would elect John James as their next governor, the former Army helicopter pilot who looks like a 1980s action star. Women would elect Gretchen Whitmer’s girlboss protege, Jocelyn Benson. Men would like Mike Rogers as their next Senator, women go for Abdul El-Sayed.

The difference isn’t by small margins either. The average gap between men and women is 30 points in every race. Politics is now a gendered affair, with the boys voting for the boy party and the girls voting for the girl party.

The thing is: More women vote. Survey results predict a likely electorate of 56% women to 46% men. Not only are there simply more women in the state, but they’re more likely to actually cast a vote.

Part of this is how voting behavior breaks down by gender, too. When surveyed, women reported a higher likelihood of voting early or by mail, while most men still prefer to show up to the polling place on election day.

Ironically, men and women largely share the same concerns for the coming election. Both groups reported that their top issue was inflation and cost of living, though men ranked a few other issues slightly higher relative to the women.

Abortion, long seen as the divisive issue skewing women towards the Democrats, isn’t the driving factor here at all. Only 4% of women surveyed reported abortion access as their primary issue for this election—compared to the 28% who cited inflation and cost of living.

Notably, Michigan’s women are much less concerned about taxes and government spending than the men. Fifteen percent of men surveyed listed taxes and government spending as their primary issue vs. only 6% of women. Likewise for jobs and the economy, a top issue for 10% of men, and only 5% of women.

Men and women are really split over how to solve the problems facing Michiganders, and who should be trusted to solve them, not what the problems themselves are.

More accurately, it’s a split over perception. Men prefer the Republicans, more geared towards independence and initiative, lower taxes, less government. Women want the Democrats, more nurturing from the state, more taxes and social welfare programs, and regulations on business.

The larger issue, of course, is how this gendered divide affects the everyday lives of Michiganders. None of us live in a single-gender bubble. Michiganders have husbands and wives, friends and relatives. Younger Michiganders are trying to date, or maybe even get married and have children.

The genders need to get along, or god forbid even like each other, but the political vitriol makes this increasingly difficult. Young women, especially, are taking their political affiliation rather seriously these days, in some cases refusing to date men who are even moderate centrists, let alone Republican voters.

I know more than a few young men who simply changed their label on dating apps to say “liberal” because they were sick of their dates hectoring them about it. Dishonest, perhaps, but as they say—all’s fair in love and war.

They’ll vote how they want, in the end, but they’d rather enjoy their dating life for now without political labels getting in the way. That’s how it used to be, you know, before the national political media circus whipped everyone up into a frenzy.

Politics matters, but it shouldn’t keep you from finding love. Nor should it negatively impact rates of marriage and family formation, which this political chasm between the genders clearly is doing. The birth rate is at an all-time low, and it’s hard not to see this as a reason.

Whatever the cause, Michigan’s political parties would be wise to take stock of the gender divide and adjust their messaging accordingly. The party that can make men and women agree again, the party that can bring men and women together, holds the greatest hope for future electoral success.