Can John James Overcome Trump's Unpopularity?

Donald Trump’s unpopularity may decide the race to become Michigan’s next governor. A recent poll conducted for Michigan Enjoyer by Cygnal in conjunction with Beacon Research showed Congressman John James seven points behind Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson.

The number of undecided voters in the poll, which was conducted from September 18-21 and has a standard margin of error of four points, was still high at 11.1%.

Among likely voters, Benson’s favorability was 42% to 40.4% unfavorable, while John James was 36.5% favorable to 42% unfavorable. Half of self-reported moderates have a favorable view of Benson, while only about a quarter of moderates feel the same about James.

Given that President Trump won Michigan less than two years ago by more than a point, the leftward swing of this cycle is significant. The president’s popularity in his second term has cratered in Michigan. Despite winning nearly half of independents in 2024, 63% of that group now disapproves of the president, with 58% strongly disapproving of him.

While Benson ran a basement campaign in her primary against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, James had a combative primary with Perry Johnson, an eccentric and egotistical millionaire who self-funded his campaign, and whose consultants made out like bandits.

James and Johnson, both vying for Trump’s endorsement in the primary, ran to be his man in Michigan. It never made sense, given that Perry Johnson literally tried to run against Trump for president in 2023. Maybe he thought the president’s folks would forget about that? But nevertheless, instead of trying to appeal to independents, James had to win over MAGA Republicans.

James won the primary easily, but that didn’t leave him much time to run to the center and toward swing voters. Many of his yard signs that dot the state still say “Trump endorsed” on them. Not a good thing if you’re looking for independent support.

But it’s still a race. Of the likely voters polled, 17.5% of respondents had no opinion of Benson or had never heard of her, while 21.5% of respondents said the same for James. The increase in public messaging in the final month of the race could tighten things up.

Given Benson’s ties to controversial data center deals, her bloated voter rolls, and her inability to build a simple campaign finance website, let’s hope voters wake up and realize she would be just Whitmer 2.0.

Kids still won’t learn to read, the potholes will get deeper, and your tax money will get frittered away in even more useless and exotic ways.

But with Trump in the White House, it might take a mighty big bucket of cold water to shock the sleeping independents toward John James.